Before climate science became ‘settled science’, there were various theories suggesting that because the amount of carbon dissolved in the Earth’s oceans exceeds that in the atmosphere by about a factor of 60, the atmospheric CO₂ content is dictated by the chemical state of the oceans. (I’m thinking of the work of W.S.Broecker and others.)
I’m working towards a New Theory of Climate Resilience, self funded at the moment. I’ve been reading Broecker’s ‘The Glacial World According to Wally’ which provides some details that fits neatly with Alex Pope’s own theory of glaciation that is often buzzing in the back of my mind.
I know that some consider me to be proceeding at a glacial pace with all of this. (Thanks for your patience, Alex Pope.)
One plank of my new theory, that I have been exploring with Ivan Kennedy, is the Thermal Acid Calcification Hypothesis to explain the seasonal patterns of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration as measured at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. In proposing this, I have come to realise that many colleagues and friends have very little understand of the five key laws of chemistry that will affect the equilibrium potentially reached between a gas and liquid, think atmosphere and oceans. (Thanks to John Abbot for explaining them to me over the years.)
Others are perplexed that I care at all about atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide. For sure carbon dioxide may not be a driver of climate change, but its varying atmospheric concentrations tend to follow temperate change that is relevant to understanding climate resilience.
I have a zoom webinar coming up with Bud Bromley and while Bud could spend the entire hour explaining ocean chemistry, he doesn’t want to. He wants to talk about more fun things, and I have promised that this webinar will be fun.
So, I am attempting to provide some background information in this blog post, useful background information perhaps to understanding ocean chemistry that will be relevant to my conversation with Bud that may focus more on volcanic eruptions, uncertain carbon budgets, and even misunderstandings about how atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide are measured at Mauna Lao, Hawaii.
Thanks to Grok, created by xAI, for the clear explanations of each of five important laws and one principle, which I’m excited to share below.
These laws, and the one principle, help unpack how CO₂ might move from the ocean to the air (and even back again), if there has been ocean warming from whatever cause since at least the 1950s. Grok has included the formulas as simply as possible for clarity. (Thanks Grok.)
1. Graham’s Law
Graham’s Law tells us how fast gases spread out or diffuse. It says that lighter gases move faster than heavier ones. The formula compares the diffusion rates of two gases based on their molar masses (M1 and M2):
Rate1 / Rate2 = sqrt(M2 / M1)
For CO₂ (molar mass 44 g/mol), this means it diffuses a bit slower than lighter gases like oxygen (32 g/mol). In my hypothesis, this law hints at how CO₂ moves from ocean water into the air, especially in choppy surface waters where gases mix. It’s a small piece of the puzzle, but it sets the stage for gas movement.
2. Ideal Gas Law
The Ideal Gas Law describes how gases behave under different conditions of pressure, volume, and temperature. It’s written as:
PV = nRT
Here, P is pressure, V is volume, n is the number of gas molecules (in moles), R is a constant (0.0821 L·atm/mol·K), and T is temperature (in Kelvin). For CO₂ in the atmosphere, this law helps us understand how its pressure changes as more CO₂ degasses from the ocean. If ocean warming (say, from circulation changes) pushes CO₂ into the air, this law tracks how that affects the atmosphere’s CO₂ levels.
3. Henry’s Law
Henry’s Law is key to understanding how much gas dissolves in a liquid, like CO₂ in seawater. It says the amount of gas dissolved is proportional to the pressure of that gas above the liquid:
C = k * P
C is the concentration of dissolved gas, P is the gas’s pressure in the air, and k is a constant that depends on the gas and temperature. If the ocean warms due to circulation shifts, k gets smaller, meaning less CO₂ stays dissolved, and more escapes to the atmosphere. This is central to my idea that ocean changes could drive CO₂ increases.
4. Fick’s Law
Fick’s Law explains how substances, like CO₂, move from areas of high concentration to low concentration. The formula is:
J = -D * (ΔC / Δx)
J is the flow of the substance, D is a diffusion constant, ΔC is the concentration difference, and Δx is the distance. In the ocean, if deep, CO₂-rich water rises to the surface (maybe from altered circulation), Fick’s Law says CO₂ will flow into the air where its concentration is lower. This could amplify degassing, especially in turbulent waters.
5. Law of Mass Action
The Law of Mass Action deals with chemical reactions that can go forward or backward, like CO₂ reacting with water to form carbonic acid and other compounds in the ocean. For a reaction like aA + bB cC + dD, it’s expressed as:
K = ([C]^c * [D]^d) / ([A]^a * [B]^b)
K is the equilibrium constant, and [X] means the concentration of each chemical. In seawater, CO₂ shifts between gas, acid, and ions (like bicarbonate). If more CO₂ enters surface water, this law shows how the balance tips, possibly pushing CO₂ back into the air. It’s a big part of the ocean’s CO₂ chemistry.
6. Le Chatelier’s Principle
Le Chatelier’s Principle says that if you disturb a balanced system, it adjusts to reduce that disturbance. No formula here, just a rule of thumb. For CO₂ in the ocean, if warming or extra CO₂ from deep water upsets the balance, the system tries to push CO₂ out to the atmosphere to stabilize. This principle ties all the others together, suggesting that ocean changes could naturally lead to more atmospheric CO₂.
According to Grok after my prompting, this matters because:
These laws weave together to explain how CO₂ might leave the ocean if circulation patterns, like the thermohaline system, have changed since the 1950s. Warmer water holds less CO₂ (Henry’s Law), concentration differences drive it to the air (Fick’s Law), chemical balances shift (Mass Action), and the system adjusts (Le Chatelier’s). The Ideal Gas Law tracks the atmospheric side, while Graham’s Law adds detail to gas movement.
The Zoom webinar, my interview with Bud Bromley, is in less than two weeks. Specifically we will be live at 6pm Hawaii time on Thursday, 24th April (2pm Brisbane-time the next day, Friday April 25th). This will be the fourth zoom meeting in my series Towards a New Theory of Climate Change. If you would like to be a part of this Webinar please register at:
https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_QrVa8XEzSPS_GvUWnXkX0Q
You will then be sent a confirmation email with a link that you will need to join the webinar, so please file the confirmation email carefully.
Bud lives in Hawaii and is a chemist by training.
The plan is that after the one hour interview, there will be another whole hour for questions, and comment. So, the plan is that Bud and I will be live for two hours with everyone who has registered unmuted for the second hour.
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The feature image is a photograph I took just this morning, at Lammermoor Beach, Yeppoon. There is so much bubble and foam at the beach at the moment with relatively acidic freshwater inflows.
